victory by an average of 3.9 percent in 2020.
“Polling is broken because most Americans don’t have landlines and if we do, we don’t answer them just as we tend not to answer cell calls from numbers we don’t recognize,” Rove says. “There are ways to deal with all that but polling is more costly, more difficult and perhaps more inaccurate.” Still, despite their increasing
fallibility, polls can provide some indication of how the race is going when taken as a whole. When evaluating the election, Rove relies on an average of recent polls, with those taken in the last few weeks providing more confidence than polls taken over a longer period. “I’II also look for similar patterns among sub-groups in many polls over different states. Then I try to gauge the relative weight of each campaign’s activity in any given state with a special emphasis on appearances, messaging and organization, all of which are subjective measures,” he says.
As of the end of June, the average among polls indicated the gap between Biden and Trump had closed to a dead heat. Election data analytics website 538 forecasted only a one-to-three electoral vote difference between Biden and Trump through most of June, with either candidate holding a small lead on any given day.
As with the last several elections, the race to 270 electoral votes (of 538 available) is likely to come down to a handful of battleground states. For Democrats, holding Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — which swung back to Biden in the 2020 election — will be key to the incumbent’s reelection. For Trump to win, he will need to peel off one of those states and hold on to polling leads in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, all of which went to Biden in 2020.
Congressional Outlooks Control of the Senate and House is
also expected to be fiercely contested. Both chambers already are evenly divided, with Democrats holding a 51- 49 advantage in the Senate (thanks to four independent senators that caucus with the Democrats) and Republicans have a narrow 219-213 lead in the House of Representatives. The outcome of the 2024 election could see those tight margins remain or see one of the parties take a larger control of Congress.
Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election, 23 of which are held by Democrats or independents and 10 held by Republicans. The remaining seat is a special election to serve out the remaining two years of Sen. Ben Sasse’s term following his resignation in 2023 to become the president of the
Battleground States in the 2024 Election KARL ROVE
ELECTORAL ANALYST FORMER WHITE HOUSE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF
Q&A MODERATOR ERIC BOELTER PRESIDENT THE BOELTER COMPANIES
SESSION INFORMATION KEYNOTE PRESENTATION 2024 ELECTION FORECAST AND ANALYSIS SEPT. 18, 9:00 – 9:45 a.m. MDT
University of Florida. The key Senate races are expected to be in Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which are currently held by Democrats or independents, increasing the likelihood that the Senate majority flips to Republicans. All 435 House seats are up for
Wisconsin Michigan Nevada Pennsyvania Arizona
reelection. Of that, about 25 seats are considered toss ups, nine lean Democrat and seven lean Republican. The outcomes of those races will decide control of the chamber and the size of the majority will determine how easily legislation is able to make its way through Congress, or whether it will be another term of stalled bills and little progress.
Georgia
Although the most focus and largest spending is on the presidential race, the results of the Senate and House elections will largely determine the effectiveness of either candidate’s second term. “When was the last time a president had a happy and productive second four years?” Rove asks. “Important decisions face the man who’ll occupy the Oval Office after Jan. 20, 2025, and what is decided will have huge ramifications for our country and the world.”
14 FEDA News & Views
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