Weather outlook
El Niño expected to bring moisture for winter crops
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ncreasing sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate the development
of El Niño, which is expected to last at least through the spring of 2019.
This El Niño is not expected to be as strong as the record-breaking El Niño in 2015-2016, most likely reaching weak or moderate strength. El Niño typically leads to wetter than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States, particularly during the winter months. This should lead to favorable soil moisture for the winter wheat crops in the southern Plains and the Delta.
El Niño is also typically associated with favorable weather conditions for crops in South America, particularly in Argentina and southern Brazil. On the other hand, El Niño typically leads to drier than normal conditions in Australia, southeast Asia and South Africa.
A larger looming question is whether El Niño will persist into the next growing season for North America. The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a 39 percent chance of El Niño for summer 2019, a 51 percent chance of neutral conditions, and only a 10 percent chance of La Niña. If El Niño were to persist into the summer months, a cooler and wetter weather pattern would be expected across the central United States, which would generally favor crops. The low probability of La Niña next summer would tend to lower the probability for hot and dry weather across the central United States.
44 Irrigation TODAY | January 2019
Warmer than normal surface water along the equator in the Pacific indicates that El Niño has developed.
The NOAA projects El Niño or neutral El Niño – Southern Oscillation conditions as the most likely outcome for next summer.
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