CROP AND MARKET PREDICTIONS Compiled by Suz Trusty
Each year, Turf News invites suppliers to provide their input on the turfgrass seed and/or vegetative stock crop and market outlook based on: Teir assessment of the impact of weather conditions on crops to date and on the anticipated impact of weather conditions predicted in their area; Trends they are seeing in their market; Te production they are anticipating in terms of quality and quantity; And their assessment of anticipated pricing for those crops as stable, higher, or lower.
Industry comments for the seed and vegetative stock crop outlook were provided from mid-May to the end of May. Please note that weather conditions do impact final yields, and that seed harvests in July and August may differ from the forecasts shared here. In addition, there are multiple factors, other than weather conditions, which impact the crop and the overall market within the sod industry. Turf News welcomed input from your seed and vegetative stock sources on these factors as well. Tough no one can accurately predict the future, these industry perspectives provide insights into the outlook for these valuable crops.
Turf News thanks all those who provided the information for this article. Tat input is arranged in alphabetical order, by the respondent’s company name.
BARENBRUG Provided by Micah Gould, Turf Product Manager
Trends in the Market: Te seed industry is navigating through a mix of uncertainty and stability. Te market for Kentucky Bluegrass remains soft, with growers reducing chemical and fertilizer inputs to manage costs, whereas some crops like perennial ryegrass and tall fescue show weaker early growth. On the other hand, prices for forages and cover crops are on the rise, and select varieties, such as elite Kentucky Bluegrass and Seeded Bermudagrass, are facing shortages due to supply chain constraints. Global market concerns, particularly tariff discussions and international shipping disruptions, are adding to the uncertainty, pushing companies to reassess current and future transactions.
Tis is one of many Kentucky Bluegrass seed production fields contracted to provide sod-quality seed for Barenbrug USA.
Impact of Weather Conditions and Forecast: Weather conditions have played a significant role in shaping crop growth this season. Last year, a dry summer in the Willamette Valley led to below-average growth in perennial ryegrass and tall fescue, requiring growers to increase spraying efforts to meet contract standards. As we transition into this season, some regions are seeing early mole infestations and vole pressure, which could affect yields. For instance, in the Nezperce area, while the Kentucky Bluegrass crop looks promising, the lack of spring rains could lead to a 10-20 percent yield reduction. In contrast, the Washington Basin has benefited from irrigation, with water not being a concern, but temperatures during pollination remain a variable factor. Overall, newly planted fields seem to be in good shape, but drought stress could affect non-irrigated crops, especially perennial ryegrass, which is more susceptible to drought.
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General Business and Market Trends: Te key trends in the industry revolve around the ongoing uncertainty in international trade, particularly due to tariff issues, and the volatility in pricing caused by fluctuating global and domestic conditions. Domestically, good spring weather is essential for meeting the needs of the domestic market and utilizing longer carryover stocks. While fertilizer prices have softened slightly, the rising costs of other inputs, including shipping and fuel, continue to affect the cost structure for many growers. Despite these challenges, growers are adapting by using precision approaches like spot spraying and adjusting input rates to ensure that crops meet the necessary standards for contract acceptance.
Production Expectations (Quality and Quantity): Looking ahead, production expectations are mixed across different regions and crop types. Kentucky Bluegrass, particularly in Nezperce, looks healthy but is dependent on the arrival of spring rains, with yield forecasts ranging from 10-20 percent above average to below average, based on rain conditions. Te Washington Basin is on track for average or slightly above- average yields, as growers have been irrigating since March. Perennial ryegrass and tall fescue are facing challenges with early growth, and non-irrigated fields may experience yield reductions. Tall fescue is more resilient to drought conditions due to its deeper roots, but some pockets of low yield are expected. Annual ryegrass, however, is expected to yield at average levels, with no significant concerns regarding drought stress due to its early maturity.
TPI Turf News July/August 2025
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