greater investment in conservation, re- siliency, replacement structures, and renewable energy. Data center demand shows every sign of continuing to be a hot market. And healthcare construc- tion spending is likely to likely to pick up in 2022.


Dimmer Outlook for Some Sectors Not all categories have a bright outlook, however. Segments with dimmer or less certain prospects include hotels and other travel-related businesses such as resorts and theme parks. Office construc- tion is likely to remain concentrated in remodeling and repurposing of existing structures, rather than new construction. Colleges and universities will not


be robust markets unless enrollments increase, which will depend in part on the ability and willingness of foreign students to return. Retail construction is likely to remain lackluster, apart from restaurants and conversion of shuttered stores into new retail, local (“last mile”) distribution, or other uses. Finding enough worker is likely to be


the #1 challenge for most contractors in 2022. In a survey that AGC of America conducted last summer and released on September 2, 86% of the 86 respondents who listed California as their princi- pal state of operations reported having open positions for hourly craft workers. That was close to the 90% of respon- dents nationally with such openings. Tree-quarters of the California contrac- tors had openings for salaried positions, considerably above the 62% nationally who reported salaried position openings. Competition for workers has steadily


intensified among all industries in the state. Te Bureau of Labor Statistics re- ported on November 12 that there were 1,155,000 job openings in California at the end of September. Seasonally adjusted openings had risen every month in 2021


U.S. and California Construction Employment Cumulative change, Feb 2020-Oct 2021, seasonally adjusted 


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and set records for six months in a row, in a series that dates back to the end of 2000.


The Workforce Challenge A number of factors suggest the challenge of filling construction jobs may get even harder in 2022. First, an ongoing survey of Facebook users conducted by the Delphi Group at Carnegie Mellon University has con- sistently found that only 53% of respon- dents who identify their occupation as construction reported having received coronavirus vaccination rate, far below the 81% rate for other occupations, as of the last week of October. Conversely, over 40% of construction respondents--more than double the share for other occupa- tions--reported being “vaccine hesitant.” Because coronavirus cases severe enough to require hospitalization are occurring almost exclusively among unvaccinated individuals, any further spike in cases is likely to hit construction workers harder than other occupations. Furthermore, mandates from government or private owners that anyone entering their premises be vaccinated will make it harder for contractors to field healthy, qualified crews. Te pandemic may also have accel-


erated the net loss of population that California first experienced in 2020. Te Census Bureau reported in December 2020 that the state lost population be- tween July 1, 2019 and July 1, 2020 for the first time since the agency first calculated annual state population in 1900. Since mid-2020 the number of deaths increased from previous years, the number of births dropped further, and net immigration remained severely depressed. California is likely to have experienced each of these trends, as well as a continued exodus to other states, meaning that its population, including working-age population, is now shrinking more rapidly. In summary, the economy nationally


and in California appears to be bouncing back from the devastation caused by the pandemic. But there remain both linger- ing problems and the risk of renewed setbacks. Contractors can expect to share in the expansion, if they can hire enough workers and keep them healthy.


Ken Simonson


CALIFORNIA CONSTRUCTOR JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022


21


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