From our President and CEO
Redistricting & the Economy: Keys to the ‘22 Election
Max Cook, President and CEO Missouri Bankers Association
II’m sure many of you are scratching your heads wondering why I’m focusing my attention on the 2022 midterm elections in this column. Believe it or not, the phones are ringing off the hook with requests for campaign contributions, for both state and federal races. What makes this especially interesting is that the redistricting process is about to unfold once the 2020 census data is released. Trow in the fact that our economy is in the early stages of recovery from a year of COVID shutdown, and you have the makings for an interesting lead-up to the November 2022 midterm elections.
Let’s look at the congressional redistricting process first. Nationwide, Republicans will dictate much of the process by controlling the mapping in 22 states with 186 U.S. House districts while Democrats will be able
to draw the map in nine states with 76 districts. Independent commissions will draw maps in 12 states with 126 districts. Just seven states with 47 districts have split control. With twice as many districts to remap, the Republicans would seem to have the advantage. Maps drawn by independent commissions also can be overturned by state legislatures in many cases, so the Republican grip appears to only get tighter. Republicans have control in places like Texas, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina, and they need to flip only five seats to recapture the House, something they could possibly attain through favorable maps in those states alone.
In Missouri, Republicans control the redistricting process. In some quarters, there is speculation the GOP may pick up a seat. How does that happen? It’s easier
than ever for Democratic areas to be divided up and scattered among more rural Republican-leaning areas.
When you look at the process nationwide, it is easy to see how the GOP could pick up three to four seats in the U.S. House simply through the redistricting process. Add to that the fact that since the end of the Civil War, the party holding the White House has lost House seats in 36 of the 39 midterm elections, and you have your answer.
Let’s look at the economy and the impact it will have on the midterms.
Te one thing that almost everyone is focused on is the growing federal debt. Just in the one year running from first quarter 2020 to first quarter 2021, the U.S. national debt load has gone from $23.2 trillion to $28.1 trillion. Tese numbers
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