MULTIPLE WORKING HYPOTHESES Table 2. Samples of Author Comments on MMWH in Review Papers


Scholarly Review Papers which opine on the Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses (MMWH)


Time Period


Geoscience Subject


1970-1979 Precambrian paleobiology


Paleo- 1980-1989


seismology (archaeology)


1990-1999 Soil formation 2000-2009 2010-2019


Earth-Mars geologic analogs


Mining


Ecology and evolution


2020-2022 Groundwater hydrology


Google Scolar search conditions: Search phrase: Geology "multiple working hypotheses"; Articles set to "Review articles"


For all three of the points listed above, the deliberate employ- ment of the MMWH could provide the breadth and balance necessary to avoid the exclusionary thinking which might lead to false knowledge. The key is how best to return the MMWH to our list of professional priorities.


The geosciences comprise many sub-disciplines involving air, water and solid earth. Because the MMWH is historically associated with geology, its significance is not necessarily equally weighted in all geoscience specialties. For example, training in the atmospheric sciences is less likely to reference the MMWH than is training in structural geology (where I was first introduced to the MMWH).


As a case in point, Chen and Drake (1986), who reviewed climate change from an atmospheric perspective, made passing mention of the MMWH but only in the context of acknowledg- ing Chamberlin’s early interest in climate change as related to glaciology. Their actual paper did not otherwise employ MMWH, instead remaining focused on greenhouse warming driven by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.


Slater et al. (2021) specifically pointed out how under-utili- zation of the MMWH has complicated reliable understanding of hydroclimatic extremes, including intense rainfall, floods, droughts and heat waves. Model simulations, in particular, were noted as being vulnerable to process-based errors if absence of MMWH led to an incomplete understanding of all potential weather and climate drivers.


www.aipg.org


Multiple Working Hypotheses for the 21st Century


Clearly, students trained in the geosciences will eventually find themselves employed in roles where technical specializa- tion is required and expected. But, hopefully, standards for quality of thought should not be so variable. The principles and practice of the MMWH can usefully provide a common thread which keeps the value and reliability of the geosciences at the highest possible level — and academic programs in the geosciences would serve well to teach accordingly.


Every student earning a degree in the geosciences could greatly benefit by taking at least one course where the MMWH is taught with practical examples. For best results, the scope adopted for the geosciences would include not only students in geology and solid-earth geophysics but also students in the atmospheric sciences — especially those aiming to be involved in climate modeling.


Geoscience professional organizations also have an impor- tant role to play in assuring that the value of the MMWH is maximized. For example, the American Institute of Professional Geologists (AIPG) maintains and promotes a detailed series of ethics and professional practices guidelines. Those guide- lines include pointers to MMWH as it relates to the practice of geology (Abbott, 2012, 2016). Similar guidance from other geoscience organizations would be highly desirable to assure that the MMWH is duly recognized across specialized fields.


Oct.Nov.Dec 2022 • TPG 17 Key Finding


Tentative working hypotheses tend to become entrenched as ruling dogma


Through repetition, popular attributions of causes can become ruling explanations


A conceptual model often is merely elaboration of a single hypothesis


Inference by analogy can focus on similarities while overlooking differences


Models are tied to past experience and ignore alternative possibilities


Not all researchers are trained in avoidance of cognitive bias


Established conceptual models do not assess uncertainty as a high priority


Reference Schopf (1975) Rapp (1986)


Hoosbeek and Bryant (1992)


Burr et al. (2009)


Phillips (2013)


Betini et al. (2017)


Batelaan et al. (2022)


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