2025 Economic Update: Key Factors and Trends Shaping the Year Ahead, and Your Takeaways! Racheal E. Solomon, Esq., DeNichilo Law, APC
The economy impacts everyone, making CAI-OC’s April
educational luncheon a timely and relevant topic. This article offers a general overview of the recent economic update, along with insights and reactions from several luncheon attendees. The presentation was thoughtfully organized by members of the CAI-OC Program Committee: Racheal Solomon, Esq. of DeNichilo Law, APC, Valerie Hernandez of Villa Park Landscape, and Robert Canchola of Kings III. When we fi rst began planning the program earlier this year, we optimistically imagined a theme of “Show me the money!” However, after meeting with our distinguished presenters and attending the presentation in April, the tone quickly shifted to a more cautious and questionable, “Show me the money?”
The educational luncheon highlighted key trends that shape the national and regional fi nancial landscape, and what that means for our industry. From interest rates to immigration policy and tariffs, the program provided a digestible breakdown of what is affecting the U.S. economy, along with forecasts about the cost of goods and services, Southern California home prices, and, importantly, association investments.
The discussion was led by two prestigious experts in the fi eld - Dr. Raymond Sfeir, Director at the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research and the Argyros School of Business and Economics at Chapman University, and Ms. Genae Affrunti, Senior Vice President/Investments and Senior Financial Consultant at Capital Reserve Group, Comerica Financial Advisors. Attendees gained valuable insights on a range of economic topics, including: (1) key factors infl uencing the U.S. economic output in 2025; (2) interest rates and infl ation trends; (3) economic forecasting as it relates to association assets and investments; (4) the impact of higher tariffs and immigration policies under the Trump administration; and (5) the current state of the residential real estate market in Orange County.
The presenters effectively connected these broader economic themes to the practical realities of association fi nancial planning and investment strategy in light of various factors, such as unique liquidity and the yield curve. As a result, attendees left with valuable insights into how the economic forecast could impact both their personal fi nances and the communities we serve.
In fact, to gain additional perspective, we spoke with
several industry partners about how the presentation resonated with them and their companies:
Derrick Camber, CMCA, AMS with Oaktree Properties refl ected on how the presentation reinforced the importance of proactive fi nancial planning for his association clients: “The economic
10 September | October 2025
impact of infl ation refl ects the importance of maintaining an accurate budget and advising the board on the realistic expectations of increases in regular operating expenses. We will apply this to our company by ensuring our board members execute their fi duciary duty to increase regular and special assessments as necessary based on the current economy and potential unforeseen increases in pricing.”
Jackie Heitman with Ross Construction Management highlighted the broader economic implications for association project planning and investment strategy: “One key takeaway from the luncheon was the push and pull between rising infl ation and slowing growth, and how that kind of uncertainty is impacting bond rates, mortgage rates, and association investments— especially in places like Southern California. At Ross Construction Management, it’s a reminder of how important it is to help our HOA clients think through the timing and funding of their projects. With construction costs and reserve planning being shaped by the market, we’re focused on providing clear guidance so boards can move forward with confi dence.”
Rebecca Smith with Vista Paint Corporation shared how the discussion inspired her to apply economic awareness to her personal and professional fi nancial planning: “My main takeaway from the program was the importance of following the fi nancial trends more closely, such as the housing market, interest rates, and investment returns. I currently apply a simple budget to my household, such as income and expenses. Moving forward, I will consider more factors in my fi nancial planning.”
Other attendees echoed similar sentiments, noting the program’s value, as they shared the following comments: “Validation of my understanding of the fi nancial and economic data I have been reading. Provided new insights to current and trending economic conditions.” And “Delving into HOA market economics was a great theme!!”
Overall, the presenters emphasized that while economists and professional investors rely on a range of indicators, such as the federal funds rate, real consumption, interest rates, employment trends, the Consumer Price Index, infl ation metrics, and the conversations on Capitol Hill to anticipate economic trends, accurately predicting the future remains a signifi cant challenge. Given the recent sweeping policy shifts by the current administration, including federal layoffs, enacted and proposed tariffs, and changes to immigration policy, the presenters suggested that while these actions may cause short-term disruptions, they could potentially yield long-term economic benefi ts. Ultimately, only time will tell.
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