for 2023.” And, in that same section, from Bloomberg, “Te World Bank cut its forecast for global growth from 3 percent to 1.7 percent. Tat would represent the worst performance in three decades, except for the year after the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid contraction.”
Te Hill, another resource your editors follow, is a U.S. newspaper and digital media company based in Washington, D.C. that focuses on politics, policy, business, and international relations. It issues multiple daily alerts via its
TeHill.com digital information service. On January 26, 2023,
TeHill.com posted the article, “Resilient U.S. economy grows 2.1 percent in 2022,” by Tobias Burns, which reported, “Te U.S. economy powered through high inflation, rising interest rates, and an energy shock to grow at a solid pace over the course of 2022, according to data released Tursday by the Commerce Department. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent last year and at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent during the fourth quarter. Tat means the U.S. economy would have grown by nearly 3 percent if the pace of growth in the fourth quarter lasted an entire year.”
“Te increase in real GDP in 2022 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment,” the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) wrote in a news release on January 26.
Personal consumption grew by 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter and has remained at or above 2 percent since the second quarter of 2022. Private inventories were also a major contributor to GDP growth, up 1.46 percent in the fourth quarter.
In addition, inflation-adjusted personal incomes increased 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1 percent in the third quarter. Te BEA release noted, “Te increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), government social benefits, and personal interest income.”
Te GDP fell in the first two quarters of 2022, leading many Americans to believe a recession had started. But that was countered by strong growth in the second half of the year. Burns reported, “Te solid numbers are a reflection of a consistently tight labor market that’s allowed U.S. consumers to continue spending even as many commercial economists have been warning of a recession.” And added, “Te GDP numbers also come amid rapidly falling inflation, which has dropped for six straight months to 6.5 percent annually in December off a high of 9.1 percent last June, effectively boosting the purchasing power of U.S. consumers. Tis has bolstered hopes for a ‘soft landing’ from the Federal Reserve—lower inflation without a serious, job-killing recession.”
TPI Turf News March/April 2023
Internationally, the rate of inflation varies, with some countries hit harder than others. For example, as the U.K. Office for National Statistics reported, growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) among employees was at 6.4 percent in September to November 2022. Yet, in real terms (adjusted for inflation) over the year, total and regular pay both fell by 2.6 percent. Tis is slightly smaller than the record drop in real regular pay the U.K. saw in April to June 2022 (3.0 percent), but still remains among the largest drops in growth since comparable records began in 2001.
Economic Optimism Rising
Yet, the Big Picture appeared to be improving as additional early February reports hit the news stream. Te Federal Reserve slowed the pace of interest rate raises to .25 percent, the lowest increase since March of 2022, in response to the U.S. inflation rates continuing decline from June’s high of 9.1 percent to December’s 6.5 percent.
Te International Monetary Fund upgraded its outlook on global economic growth to an annual rate of 2.9 percent, up from 2.7 percent in October.
Tat is in addition to the strong report on job openings from the U.S. Department of Labor cited earlier in this article. Yet more job openings, without an increase in the numbers of those seeking jobs, makes it even harder to fill those vacant positions. Using the end of December figures of 11 million open jobs compared to unemployment figures at that time brings the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers to 1.9. Tat means there are nearly two job openings in the U.S. for every job seeker.
Using the end of December figures of 11 million open jobs compared to unemployment
figures at that time brings the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers to 1.9. That means there
are nearly two job openings in the U.S. for every job seeker.
Suz Trusty is co-editor of Turf News.
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