average U.S. household will pay $840 more in taxes in 2026 as a result, and that, in the long run, the tariffs will shrink gross domestic product by 0.4% and eliminate the equivalent of 345,000 full- time jobs. The projected economic impact is
underscored by how significant the administration’s approach to tariffs has been. The country’s weighted average applied tariff rate stood at just 1.5% in 2022. By comparison, the Tax Foundation estimates that under the current tariff structure, the applied rate will climb to 11.7% in 2026. Distributors and manufacturers trying
to plan around those rising import taxes face a moving target. Tariff policy has changed more than 50 times since January 2025, as various tariffs have been blocked by the courts only to be resurrected under different legal authorities. The strongest rebuke came in February 2026 when the Supreme Court struck down the sweeping global “Liberation Day” tariffs the administration had put into effect under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court ruled that the 1977 law did not give the president authority to impose tariffs; however, it did not address what the government should do with the $166 billion in duties it had already collected through the IEEPA. A few weeks later, the U.S. Court of International Trade ordered that all the associated taxes must be repaid to the businesses that paid them. Returning all that money is going to take some time. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) implemented an automated refund system in late April
to help manage the process, but as of the end of July it had only issued $100 billion in refunds, about 60% of the total. The first wave of refunds covers only unliquidated entries and entries within 80 days of liquidation; refunds for older, finalized tariff payments will be handled in a future phase.
Although money is now being
returned to businesses, the administration remains committed to its tariff strategy. Immediately after the Supreme Court ruling, it invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a temporary 10% tariff on most imports, a measure set to expire after 150 days, on July 24. The Court of International Trade ruled against those tariffs as well in May, though the government’s appeal allowed the tariffs to remain in effect until the statutory deadline arrived.
Section 301 Tariffs Take Over With the Section 122 tariffs set to lapse,
the administration turned to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The law authorizes the president to investigate and retaliate against foreign trade practices deemed “unjustifiable,” “unreasonable,” or “discriminatory.” The first wave of Section 301 investigations concluded in late July, resulting in new tariffs on 60 countries that account for an estimated $964 billion in goods. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson
Greer said the investigations found that the affected trading partners were inadequately enforcing bans on goods made with forced labor. “President Trump recognizes that decades of moral suasion have not eradicated forced labor from global supply chains,” Greer said. “The United States has had a forced
labor import ban for nearly a century and rigorously enforces it; it’s well past time for our trading partners to do the same.”
The new duties, ranging from 10% to 12.5% depending on the country, are structured differently than their predecessors. Where the IEEPA and Section 122 tariffs applied broadly and were vulnerable to court challenge, Section 301 tariffs are expected to provide a more durable legal framework because they are backed by a formal statutory process that requires structured investigations and findings. Additional Section 301 actions are expected in the coming months as the U.S. Trade Representative is also reviewing whether 16 countries have overproduced goods in ways that depressed prices and disadvantaged U.S. companies.
Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Tariffs Persist Separate from the IEEPA-Section 122-Section 301 progression, tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and their derivative products remain in place under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Under this law, the president can adjust duties on imports found to threaten national security following a Commerce Department investigation. Trump initially imposed Section
232 tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum in 2018 during his first term. He moved quickly to reinstate and expand those duties after returning to office, setting 25% tariffs on both metals in February 2025, then doubling the rate to 50% four months later. In August
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