Weather outlook
La Niña fades away ... Is El Niño next?
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he La Niña event that developed last fall and contributed to drought across the southwestern Plains, desert Southwest and Argentina has weakened over the past several months as water temperatures in the tropical Pacific warmed. As a
result, the current state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycle is neutral and is likely to remain neutral throughout the North American growing season. This should allow other factors, such as water temperatures in the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific to drive summer weather patterns across North America. The question going forward is, what will happen with the ENSO cycle later this year? The latest computer models suggest that a trend toward El Niño is most likely the scenario for later this year, with about a 50 percent chance of El Niño conditions for this winter, 40 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions, and only a 10 percent chance of La Niña. If El Niño were to develop later this year, one would typically expect favorable conditions for crops in Brazil and Argentina during the Southern Hemisphere growing season and a wetter than normal winter across the southern United States. However, there is still time for conditions to change and a transition to El Niño is not yet a sure thing.
Sea surface temperature
The shrinking area of cooler than normal surface
water in the tropical Pacific indicates La Niña is fading.
• Water
Distribution + Control
• Drainage • Irrigation
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ENSO forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
projects El Niño or neutral ENSO conditions as the
most likely outcome for next winter.
44 Irrigation TODAY | July 2018
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