AVMA News (cont.)
curves except in theoretical settings because the data are never sufficient to do so,” according to the Mars paper.
Volk disagrees. “You can’t suspend laws of supply and demand and say they don’t apply,” he said, adding that the Mars paper did not provide for any kind of uncertainty about the future, but rather, uses simple linear projections that were not based on any commonly used model or forecasting algorithm.
“Our objective was to not to confirm or challenge the Lloyd paper. We tried to get the longest-term data available and do a reasonable analysis and forecasting using accepted algorithms,” Volk said. “We tried to let the data speak for themselves.”
MacLachlan added that the Brakke paper acknowledges uncertainty around the forecast—largely because of limited data and considering outcomes well into the future. In terms of other distinctions, he said they carefully thought about whether there was potential market failure in the system, but ultimately couldn’t find one.
“We did a nice and careful job of thinking if we had a labor market facing disequilibrium, and without clear evidence, I don’t think you can impose it,” MacLachlan said.
He previously spent eight years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture as an analyst for agricultural commodities and food prices.
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“I’ve studied several markets in my career, and I don’t expect there to be a mismatch in supply and demand. It would be especially unusual to hold for a decade out. I think that would be a very particular situation economists would be drawn to,” MacLachlan said.
He added, “Te pace at which it goes to equilibrium does matter. I don’t want to say there aren’t regional or practice type-specific frictions or problems where supply doesn’t equal demand, but over the long term, I don’t expect that to persist forever,” he said.
A version of this story appears in the December 2024 print issue of JAVMA.
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