AVMA News (cont.)
Tree new schools are currently admitting students: Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas; Long Island University in Brookville, New York; and Ana G. Méndez University in Gurabo, Puerto Rico. Also, Lincoln Memorial University (LMU) Richard A. Gillespie College of Veterinary Medicine in Harrogate, Tennessee, added a second cohort of 100 students in January 2023 and will continue to matriculate 100 students each January in addition to enrolling 125 veterinary students each August.
And then there are 13 veterinary colleges in various stages of pursuing AVMA COE accreditation:
• Arkansas State University in Jonesboro, Arkansas • Chamberlain University in Stockbridge, Georgia • Clemson University in Clemson, South Carolina • Hanover College in Hanover, Indiana • Lincoln Memorial University-Orange Park (Florida) • Lyon College in Batesville, Arkansas • Midwestern University in Downers Grove, Illinois • Murray State University in Murray, Kentucky • Rowan University in Mullica Hill, New Jersey • Utah State University in Logan Utah • University of Maryland Eastern Shore in Princess Ann, Maryland • Rocky Vista College in Billings, Montana • St. Matthews University in the Cayman Islands
Based on available information, the report’s authors anticipate that two new veterinary colleges will graduate their first class in 2028, six in 2029, and five in 2030. Even by 2035, only about 4% of veterinarians would be graduates of new veterinary colleges, Volk said. Te real impact on the population of veterinarians will likely occur after 2035.
Forecasted and projected numbers of new graduates are based on an estimate that all schools will start with class sizes of 100 and grow at an annual rate of 2%. Tis projection includes the assumption that the portion of new veterinary graduates entering companion-animal medicine will climb to 80%. Class sizes in U.S. veterinary colleges have grown by an average of 3.1% yearly since 2001.
Based on this information, it appears that the number of companion animal veterinarians likely will increase faster than the number of pets and pet-owning households over the forecast period.
“What we don’t know, looking into future, is what those relationships are going to be like. Certainly, given the circumstances we’ve seen in last 20 years, if we add 50% more vet schools over a 10-year period, going from 30 to 46, then demand either has to grow at a similar pace or it will have a depressing effect on prices and wages,” Volk said.
He added that if the cost of veterinary services increases at a slower rate than other goods and services, that will stimulate demand as well.
Mars report
Te narrative that the U.S. has a shortage of small animal veterinarians had taken hold recently. Often cited is an August 2023 report commissioned by Mars Veterinary Health, which has a network of 3,000 veterinary clinics worldwide, titled, “Pet Healthcare in the U.S.: Another Look at the Veterinarian Workforce.” It says the nation will need as many as 55,000 additional veterinarians by 2030 to meet the increasing need for companion animals’ health care.
Written by Dr. Jim Lloyd, the report cites research from the University of Florida that uses a “nowcasting” or “systems modeling” approach, in which real-time or near-real-time data are used to characterize both the current state of this labor market and trends in supply and demand.
Yet, Volk said his concern with the paper is that Dr. Lloyd doesn’t factor in supply and demand in his calculations. Dr. Lloyd argued that “labor shortages are virtually never calculated using supply and demand
Continued on pg. 40 Winter 2025 39
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