be shielded against cyber-attacks, as manipulation could distort operational efficiencies and even lead to financial losses,” Khan says. Ethically, Khan says landscape compa- nies need to be transparent with clients about how data influences their landscape choices and respect ecological consid- erations to avoid over-reliance on AI for profit-driven, potentially unsustainable practices. Currently, the barriers to adopting AI include high costs and a lack of AI-specific training. However, Khan expects as the technology becomes cheaper, more small to medium-sized businesses will be able to take advantage of AI. “Additionally, as training programs for AI in landscaping emerge, the workforce will become more comfortable using advanced technologies,” Khan says. Khan says failing to adopt AI is the new


“missed Industrial Revolution.” “Those that ignore AI risk obsolescence, struggling to keep up with competitors who can operate faster, cheaper, and more precisely,” Khan says. “As Malcolm Gladwell describes in “The Tipping Point,” businesses that fail to adapt risk falling behind once the landscape industry fully embraces AI-driven practices.”


MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS MARKET Another ubiquitous subject in the landscape industry is the prevalence of mergers and acquisitions and where they will go from here. According to Jeff Harkness, founder and CEO of 3PG Advisors, based in Alpharetta, Georgia, he is seeing no slowdown in private equity groups raising capital. Tom Fochtman, CEO of Ceibass Venture


Partners, based in Arvada, Colorado, agrees there is a good market ahead, but there are less candidates for buyers to pick from. Fochtman explains the landscape industry is like any other that experiences consoli- dation. There is a frenzy early on, and many great companies sell. “There are a lot of great landscape companies all over the U.S., but many of them are younger and not ready to sell, largely due to the age of the owners and their companies are not large enough for the owners to create enough wealth if they were to sell,” Fochtman says. “The good news is we have way more potential buyers today than we did in the past. There will always be a good market for great companies to sell.” Harkness says we will continue to see more activity in ‘bolt-on’ services like light-


ing, irrigation, pools, and more. Despite the increased consolidation of brands, Harkness and Fochtman don’t expect to see any consumer pushback against private-equity-owned companies. “Customers don’t care who the owners


are,” Harkness says. “It’s about service, com- munication, pricing and partnership.” However, Fochtman notes independent owners will always have an advantage when competing against large, multi-state companies. “20 years ago, when I was an opera-


tor, I would hand my business card to a potential client and tell them to feel free to call me,” Fochtman says. “I would subtly say Mr. ValleyCrest and Mr. Brickman will not be able to do that. Same today. That will always be an advantage to locally-owned companies.” Harkness says he expects to see more


‘buyside’ activity from companies not backed by private equity, but these strate- gic acquisitions will be limited by access to capital. “There are very few, true strategic ac- quisitions done in the landscape industry today,” Fochtman says. “Most local, true strategic buyers don’t really exist. I think landscape owners don’t have an appetite for risk. They don’t want to invest the mon- ey for an acquisition. They have more of a mindset to grow organically.” As private equity focuses on commercial landscape maintenance, it has opened up market share for other customer bases. Harkness says that residential is in high demand. “Mariani Premier Group is the first signif-


icant play in the residential sector,” Focht- man says. “They have done an amazing job without any real competition.”


ECONOMIC TRENDS Whether you are looking to buy, sell or grow your company, the economy can play a role in your ability to do so. Taylor St. Germain, an economist with ITR Economics, expects the economy to heat up in 2025 and 2026, and companies that haven’t prepared aren’t going to be ready for the growth that will come during these two years. “The majority of the economy is


growing,” St. Germain says. “There are certain segments that are going to perform better than others. I think it’s really important as you’re planning and looking where to allocate your resources and your time and your people that you have a perspective on which markets are going to grow better than others.”


“In landscaping, while AI will handle data- heavy tasks like predictive analysis or soil health assessments, it will likely remain an efficiency tool for physical roles, aiding rather than eliminating jobs in manual labor,” - Ian Khan, a dedicated futurist specializing in artificial intelligence


St. Germain says they expect single and multifamily markets to have better growth rates in 2025 than what they see for some of the commercial construction segments. By 2026, there will be growth in all the commercial construction segments and continued growth in residential. “Regardless of what the media says,


we continue to see some strong trends in consumer spending,” St. Germain says. “It has slowed down. We still see retail sales performing well. We’re not expecting a recession in retail sales. We continue to see real personal incomes rising despite what the media says. We see that the consumers generally have debt under control.” St. Germain says interest rates will likely come down into 2025. “As we get in ‘26 and beyond, we do ex-


pect to see some higher interest rates and some higher inflation, and so it’s important to have that plan in place,” St. Germain says. He expects inflation to climb because of the level of government spending, and they are starting to see a rebound in the money supply. “Those are great leading indicators to


tell us that inflation is coming our way,” St. Germain says. “The other thing that I think is very important is labor costs are going to drive some of that inflation. We’re projecting between 25% and 28% increase in labor costs over the course of the next five years. That is no small number when it comes to the increase in labor costs.” St. Germain says companies will face a


serious labor shortage over the next five years. “A lot of the reason for that is just we


have a large generation of the baby boom- ers exiting the workforce, and we don’t have enough immigration into the country to really offset all of the job openings that we have,” St. Germain says. He says the usage of AI will be critical moving forward as businesses have to find ways to make their existing workforce more efficient. “Otherwise we’re going to find ourselves at a capacity constraint as we move for- ward now,” St. Germain says.


National Association of Landscape Professionals 21


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