KICKER
WEATHER OUTLOOK
Wet winter could lead to
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www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu O
ne of the highlights of the National Weather Service’s updated winter outlook is the likelihood of wet conditions across the northern half of the United
States. As the nation slips into the heart of the cold season, this could mean repeated rounds of snow in the Midwest, as well as northern sections of the Rockies and Plains.
From a water-supply perspective, this is good news: Lakes and reservoirs should be brimming in the spring of 2020. However, given antecedent wetness in many of the same areas, particularly across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, a wet winter could lead to a near-repeat of what happened in 2019, when relentless spring precipitation contributed to extensive flooding and planting delays.
From a temperature perspective, the majority of the country should experience above-normal winter temperatures. Winter warmth will be most likely in the southern and western United States. However, episodic and potentially severe cold outbreaks, similar to those already observed this autumn, can be expected, particularly across the Plains and Midwest.
U.S. drought
Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage in the lower 48 states stood at 11% on Dec. 10, compared to an autumn peak of 21% on Oct. 15. While improvement has occurred in the Southeast, farther West, drought persists across parts of the central and southern Plains. A strip of extreme drought (D3) was recently introduced in southwestern Kansas, where some locations have reported less than 1 inch of precipitation since Sept. 1. The Plains’ drought, while localized, has severely stressed some rangeland and winter wheat.
Much of the Southwest also experienced autumn drought, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture reporting that 75% of Arizona’s rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition on Nov. 17. At the same time, California’s foothill rangeland and nonirrigated pastures were reported to be in poor condition. In late November, however, the sudden arrival of precipitation across southern California, the Great Basin and the Southwest provided appreciable drought relief.
36 Irrigation TODAY | Winter 2020 S L S S Author: Deborah Bathke. National Drought Mitigation Center
The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions. Local conditions may vary. For more information on the
Drought Monitor, go to
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About.aspx Source: U.S. Drought Monitor
irrigationtoday.org SL L S S SL S
Delineates dominant impacts Drought impact types
6 months (e.g., hydrology, ecology) S = Short-term, typically less than
None
D0 Abnormally dry D1 Moderate drought
D2 Severe drought D3 Extreme drought D4 Exceptional drought
6 months (e.g., agriculture, grasslands)
Intensity L = Long-term, typically greater than
S S
Three-month outlook temperature probability from the National Weather Service
U.S. Drought Monitor Dec. 10, 2019
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