KICKER
WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPONSORED BY
www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu A
s the fall and winter seasons take shape, the easy part of the outlook appears to be temperatures. In fact, odds are tilted toward above-normal temperatures
across the lower 48 states, with the greatest likelihood of autumn warmth in the Southwest and Northeast.
From a forecast perspective, the precipitation outlook is more problematic. Odds are tilted toward the wetness in two distinct areas: the middle and southern Atlantic states and a swath from the four corners states across the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor, U.S. drought coverage reached a modern-era record low of just over 2% of the contiguous United States in April. More recently, drought coverage has increased to more than 14% (by Sept. 17, 2019), partly due to worsening drought across the South. Lack of topsoil moisture could be a major concern in the South as the winter wheat planting season gets underway.
As recently as late July, drought coverage stood at just over 3%. In recent weeks, however, drought has developed in several parts of the country, including parts of the South, with U.S. coverage topping 10% by early September for the first time since March 2019. Still, drought coverage remains below the historic average of approximately 20%.
L
The newly developed drought has some implications for the nation’s producers. For example, as of early September winter wheat planting was underway across the southern Plains, where topsoil moisture has been sharply reduced by late-summer heat and drought. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, statewide topsoil moisture in Texas was rated 84% very short to short on Sept. 1. Given the moisture shortages, both irrigated and dryland wheat fields in Texas and elsewhere in the South may require plenty of autumn rainfall to ensure even germination and proper crop establishment.
Three-month outlook temperature probability from the National Weather Service
SL
U.S. drought monitor Sept. 3, 2019
S S
S S SL S S S S S Author David Miskus NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC S SL S
The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions. Local conditions may vary. See accompanying text summary for forecast statements.
Source: U.S. Drought Monitor 38 Irrigation TODAY | Fall 2019
irrigationtoday.org
Delineates dominant impacts Drought impact types
6 months (e.g., hydrology, ecology) S = Short-term, typically less than
None
D0 Abnormally dry D1 Moderate drought
D2 Severe drought D3 Extreme drought D4 Exceptional drought
6 months (e.g., agriculture, grasslands)
Intensity L = Long-term, typically greater than
S S
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46
