# Interest rates “Going forward, the major concern for businesses will be the pace of interest rate cuts and where they will end up,” said Yaros.


# Inflation “If the consumer price index returns to positive territory, that could throw a monkey wrench into many business plans,” said Conerly.


# Tariffs “Tariffs amount to price increases for our members who have to buy materials from abroad,” said Palisin.


# Geopolitics “An increasing level of turmoil around the world can disrupt supply chains, increasing shipping costs,” said Conerly.


Concerning as these risks are, economists anticipate a fairly benign operating environment in 2025. “Te U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient despite all the hits it’s taken over the past few years,” said Yaros. “We don’t anticipate a recession, as the Federal Reserve will be dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, and there are no glaring imbalances in the economy.”


Prepare for a Soft Landing


Modest growth in the nation’s economy will support business profits in 2025.


U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annual Percentage Change


2014: 2.5 percent 2015: 2.9 percent 2016: 1.8 percent 2017: 2.5 percent 2018: 3.0 percent 2019: 2.5 percent 2020: -2.2 percent 2021: 5.8 percent 2022: 1.9 percent 2023: 2.5 percent *2024: 2.7 percent * 2025: 2.5 percent * 2026: 2.1 percent Sources: World Bank; * = projections by Oxford Economics


TPI Turf News January/February 2025


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