WATER SCARCITY
of irrigated land over time, as that land will now be less profitable due to increased pumping costs.
The second effect is around well yield. This effect is nonlinear. As aquifers thin, well yield will also go down, but the impact will be nonlinear because of the impact on the ability to meet crop water needs. For example, a reduction in aquifer thickness from 500 to 450 feet will have a very small impact on well yield. The same reduction in thickness, of 50 feet, for a 100-foot-thick aquifer will have a catastrophic effect on a growers’ ability to meet crop water needs in a drought. This means that a constant rate of aquifer depletion will have larger and larger negative impacts on growers’ profitability over time. To keep irrigating, many growers will reduce the area they irrigate as a risk management strategy. Our work shows this effect taking place in the High Plains.
So what?
The kinds of effects that we’ve documented are not just confined to the High Plains region. Similar relationships between thinning aquifers, declining well yields and increasing drought risks to agriculture are observed globally. So, what can we take away from this to inform management decisions and policy?
First, it’s important to understand the economics. I’m an economist, so arguably I’m biased here. There’s a through line from declining well yields in one field to increasing revenue risks from crop production, to a grower’s decision to cut back on irrigated acreage, to declining regional agricultural land values, and to decisions to make new investments elsewhere (think back to the electric provider that declined to extend its service). Understanding the economic ramifications of aquifer depletion and their underlying
drivers is necessary for individuals and communities to be able to discuss what meaningful actions could be taken.
Second, it’s clear that well yield is a key indicator of resilience and of the ability of irrigation to maintain crop yields during drought. Yet, from a policy perspective, well yield in production wells is rarely measured and never managed. I would love to see some serious consideration of incentivizing the maintenance of well yields as a tool for groundwater management, in addition to other policy tools that are in use. If policies were able to provide incentives around well yield, it might be possible to stop the creeping progression from “gradually” to “suddenly” water bankruptcy.
, is director of policy for the Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute and also a professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1
january 2024 y 2024
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1 ARIZONA EDITION
jajanuanuary 202
nu ry 2024nuary 2024
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1 MONTANA EDITION Carl Peters of Lockwood
Irrigation District: Navigating an
Uncertain Future
january 2024 y 2024
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1 NEBRASKA EDITION
january 2024uary 2024
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1 NEW MEXICO EDITION
january 2024aran nuary
Last Irrigator on the Rio Grande:
Arturo Cabello of the Brownsville Irrigation District
The Goshen and Gering–Fort Laramie Irrigation Districts Go to Washington
Alan Shea:
Murrumbidgee Irrigation’s Transition to an Automated
The Ute Mountain Ute Tribe’s Farm and Ranch Enterprise:
An Award-Winning Irrigated Farming Operation in the Four Corners Region
Paul Brierley: Addressing Climate Change at the Arizona
Department of Agriculture and on the Governor’s Water Council
David and John Thom on T-L’s Unique Hydraulic Pivots
Lori Brady and David Felman of
Sunnyside Valley Irrigation District: Water Conservation Program
Irrigation System y 2024 4
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1 WASHINGTON STATE EDITION
january 2024 an yuary 2022 24 4
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1 WYOMING EDITION
january 2024 y 2024
VOLUME 15 ISSUE 1 NEW ZEALAND EDITION
A Talk With
Todd Muller on New Zealand’s Water Future
Talking Water and Ag With Senator
Pete Ricketts
january 2024 y 2024
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 10
november/december 2023 ecember 2023
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 10 NEBRASKA EDITION
november/december 2023 ecember 2023
ARE YOU RECEIVING IRRIGATION LEADER MAGAZINE?
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 10 NEW MEXICO EDITION november/december 2023 ecember 2023
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 10 WASHINGTON STATE EDITION
nov vember/december 2023 ecember 2023
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 10 NEW ZEALAND EDITION
Blazing Trails Across the
United States: Trailblazer Tours Irrigated Ag in Nebraska, Oregon, and Washington
november/december 2023 ecember 2023 VOLUME 14 ISSUE 9 october 2023 ber 2023
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 9 ARIZONA EDITION
october 2023 ber 2023
Growing Concerns:
Sharon Megdal
of the University of Arizona on
Drought and the Future of Food Production
James Brower: How the Lower
Yellowstone Irrigation
Project Turned Badlands Into Wetlands
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 9 MONTANA EDITION
Damien Schiff of the
Mori Hensley: Making Connections and Building Resilience Through the Santa Fe Watershed Association
A Conversation With Chris Duke, the New Manager of Reclamation’s
Sackett II Decision
irrigationleadermagazine.com october 2023 ber 2023
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 9 NEBRASKA EDITION
october 2023 ber 2023 VOLUME 14 ISSUE 9 NEW MEXICO EDITION
Aron Balok of the Pecos
Valley Artesian Conservancy
District: Helping
Irrigators Conserve Groundwater
october 2023 ber 2023 3
VOLUME 14 ISSUE 9 WASHINGTON STATE EDITION
october 2023 ber 2023 VOLUME 14 ISSUE 9 NEW ZEALAND EDITION october 2023 ber 2023
Too Much Water? Irrigation and Flood Protection at the Middle Niobrara Natural Resources District
Julie Davies O’Shea of Farmers
Farmers and the Environment
A Farmer-Friendly Solution for Monitoring Water Quality:
Abi Croutear-Foy of RiverWatch
irrigationtoday.org
Spring 2024 | Irrigation TODAY 27
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