WILLIAM SIOK GRADUATE SCHOLARSHIP WINNERS
Kiara Gomez, SA-4113 University of Texas Austin- Texas Section
Humans and ecosystems depend on water. It is at the center of sustain- able socio-economic growth and develop- ment. Yet, our already limited freshwater sources are rapidly dwindling. Water scarcity already affects over 2 billion people, a fourth of the global population (UN, 2018). This is, and will continue to
be, a challenging issue for generations. The severity will only worsen with a growing population and increasing demand for this precious resource.
Today, climate change is already impacting water availability world- wide. As of 2019, seventeen countries had cities experiencing extreme high water stress. Cities in tropical countries like Mexico City, Mexico, and Dhaka, Bangladesh, have historically depend- ed on groundwater resources that are now depleted (Sengupta and Cai, 2019; Velasco and Capilla, 2019). Tropical countries present additional challenges with water resources exploration and extraction, including accessibility and scarcity of publicly available datasets.
Colombia is a tropical country that faces severe water scarcity issues by 2050 despite ranking 24th in the world in water resources (Johnson, 2017). Over 85% of its drinking water is sourced from páramos, which are unique alpine
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positioned for this challenge because they are trained to ana- lyze the changes on Earth at different geological time scales. Geology professionals who specialize in paleoclimatology and climate modeling are especially crucial when it comes to predicting future changes on Earth based on geologic his- tory. Paleoclimatologists can generate highly resolved climate reconstructions from the rock record through application of reliable proxies, such as stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. These proxies are powerful tools that are commonly used to investigate mechanisms and drivers behind past changes in climate and precipitation. Climate scientists incorporate these climate records into numerical models that allow investigation of the dynamics of past environmental changes. This knowl- edge is then used to improve future climatic predictions within our lifetimes and for future generations. In Colombia, the dual
Tackling and preparing for water scarcity worldwide requires a deeper understand- ing of the feedbacks between different components of Earth’s system. Geologists are uniquely positioned for this challenge because they are trained to analyze the changes on Earth at different geological time scales.
grasslands only found in tropical regions, below the snow line of the mountain ranges, such as the Colombian Andes (Santoyo, 2015). As a whole, páramo ecosystems essentially control much of the hydrology of northern Colombia, and act as sponge reservoirs of rainfall. They also receive a significant portion of their water from glacial melt and runoff. However, climate change and the continued retreat of Andean glaciers at a rate of 3-5% per year are thought to be factors that contribute to drying out these vulnerable ecosystems (Veettil et al., 2019). This will cause water shortages for more than 8 million people in Bogota alone (OECD, 2014).
Páramos are strategic ecosystems highly vulnerable to interannual climate variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which causes irregular fluctuations in ocean-atmospheric temperatures in the east-central Equatorial Pacific. In 2010-11, the La Niña (cold) phase affected approximately four million Colombians, and caused $7.8 billion USD in damages due to landslides, flooding, and contamination of water facilities. El Niño phases (warm) cause extreme droughts, leading to water shortages and further accelerating the loss of Andean glaciers (Hoyos et al., 2013). In 2019 alone, El Niño caused widespread water shortages in almost 400 municipalities (Villavicencio, 2019). Global climate change is projected to make ENSO cycles more extreme, leading to extreme temperature shifts and higher chances of water scarcity across Colombia.
Tackling and preparing for water scarcity worldwide requires a deeper understanding of the feedbacks between dif- ferent components of Earth’s system. Geologists are uniquely
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tools of climate models and proxies can be used to understand ENSO’s impact on climate variability and set it in the context of global climate change.
High-resolution paleoclimate records are scarce in Colombia, hindering our understanding of its hydroclimate variability. Most paleoclimate records are from localities far south, are incomplete or have low sampling resolution. These records capture changes in the South American Summer Monsoon rather than in equatorial to northern South American climate dynamics, which are driven more by ENSO-related variability. Poorly-resolved paleoclimate records are also an impediment for climate forecasting in other vulnerable areas prone to water scarcity (e.g., Western Africa, Australia, Middle East). We are in desperate need of paleoclimatologists to sample and interpret additional complete records. We also need climate scientists to fit models to these records to better predict future climate variability and its impact. Greater data quality and density will provide more robust models, and thus more reli- able predictions. The accuracy of these predictions is crucial to influencing policy decisions that address and mitigate the risks of increasing water scarcity. The ability to act effectively, based on an accurate understanding of Earth’s systems, a critical first step in confronting this global issue.
About the Essayist
Kiara is a PhD candidate at UT Austin, exploring the impact of volcanism on paleoceanographic conditions of the North Sea. She is from Queens, NY, and is excited to address challenging questions as a researcher in industry or academia.
Jul.Aug.Sep 2020 • TPG 25
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