ESSAY ON CLIMATE CHANGE Continued from p. 13
estimated global mean temperature anomalies in °F and °C for 1976–2005 for various runs of four Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC).
While all the RPC estimates increase from 2010 onwards, the amount of increase varies considerably. For some of the estimates, the rate of increase grows over time and declines for others. Is climate change happening? Yes. But how much and how fast depends on the particulars of the estimate. Figure 3 is a chart of 2016 US greenhouse gas emissions. Transportation’s contribution is over 90% from gasoline and diesel for cars, trucks, ships, trains, and planes. About 68% of electricity
greenhouse gases such as methane and black carbon aerosols exert stronger warming effects on a per ton basis, they do not
persist as long in the atmosphere. CO2 is generated by the burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil, and natural gas.
While Figure 3 is interesting, the underlying data (and the NCA4 report as a whole) lumps all greenhouse gases together. This lumping of fossil fuels is for me a major failing of the NCA4 report as a basis for moving towards a solution because the
amount of CO2 generated by burning coal, oil, and natural gas differs. There are even differences attributable to the quality (BTU and trace element content) of coals and to the type of oil used (gasoline, bunker oil, etc.). Natural gas, being essentially
methane (CH4) lacks the variability of coal or oils. Moving towards increased use of natural gas for transportation fuel and electricity generation and reduction of in the use of coal in particular could be a positive step.
Let’s turn to the second part of this article’s title, “Are we changing or not?”. “We” (the general public) is the important word in this question and the answer to the question is gener- ally “not.” Coal use may be down to some extent in the US but is increasing elsewhere in the world. The number of vehicles on the road and jets in the air is increasing. Despite recognition of sea level rises, people are not moving away from the sink- ing Texas and Louisiana coasts or areas of frequent hurricane impact such as the Gulf Coast and Florida. The root cause of almost all environmental problems is too many people. Yet little is being done to reduce the world’s population. A repeat of the so-called Spanish flu pandemic of 1918–19 that infected 1/3rd of the world’s population and killed at least 50 million worldwide would result in only a temporary reduction in popu- lation (
www.cdc.gov/features/1918-flu-pandemic/index.html). People generally don’t like change of any type, particularly changes that are viewed as making life more difficult. Such changes are resisted.
Figure 3.
www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/ sources-greenhouse-gas-emis- sions, accessed 10/19/18.
production comes from fossil fuels, mostly coal and natural gas. Industry’s contribution comes from burning fossil fuels for energy, but some come from manufacturing chemical reactions (for example, making cement and flue gas desulfurization that
release CO2 from the CaCO3 used in these processes). The commercial and residential contribution comes mostly from heating primarily natural gas or fuel oil. Agriculture’s contri- bution comes from livestock (cows), soil amendments, and rice production; methane is the main greenhouse gas generated.
causing the greatest concern for climate change. While other
Land use and forestry act as an absorbent of CO2 and offsets about 11% of the 2016 greenhouse gas emissions. The NCA4 report notes that CO2 is the greenhouse gas
A radical proposal: instead of having a 2,500-foot setback from buildings for new oil and gas wells (a proposed Colorado Constitutional amendment on the November ballot), let’s have a 2,500-foot setback for all new development from existing and planned oil and gas wells. This would force increased population density in existing urban areas along the Colorado Front Range. Increased population density could stimulate the use of public transportation (and maybe reduce the need for subsidizing public transit) and it would retain agricultural areas with plants that offset greenhouse gas emissions. Other consequences may occur to you. Is this proposal likely to be adopted? No. Should we all become vegans to reduce the resource consumption required to raise animals for food? I don’t think this will happen. So, are we (the general public) changing or not; we are not.
Plate Tectonics Creed I believe in the tectonic theory, Maker of the face of the Earth, and of all things geological
thereon. And in the lithospheric plate, which was conceived ‘neath the midst of the waters, born of the oceanic ridge, suffered to receive the magnetic stripes, was buckled, bent, and subducted. It descended into the mantle, The third hundred-million-year period it rose again, According to the learned journals, and sitteth upon the bed of the ocean. From whence it shall come to smite those that live on its edges. I believe in this hyper-thesis, its wholly catholic application, the community of geoscientists, the resurrection of Wegener, and the Theory Everlasting.
(Alastair C. McKay, Letter to the Editor: Geotimes, March 1975, p. 12-13.) Contributed by David M. Abbott
52 TPG •
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