LETTER TO THE EDITOR January 7, 2019
Dear Editor: The First Quarter 2019 issue of TPG
is possibly the best Student Edition ever; I read it with great interest. The primary purpose of this letter, however, is not to comment on the overall quality of the issue, but instead to offer some comments on a topic that appears to be the “Elephant in the Room” of AIPG –that being “anthropogenic global warm- ing.” The Institute is strongly castigated for its alleged “non-committal” stance on the issue in the letter from Drew Diefendorf, CPG-03598, and that “non- commitment” is exemplified by the adroit fence-straddling statement by Brandy Barnes, the 2018 Young Professional Member of the AIPG National ExCom (in David Abbott’s “Professional Ethics and Practices” column). Mr. Diefendorf advo- cates the climate science orthodoxy that anthropogenic global warming is “settled science.” Well, I’m here to disagree. As an example, the figure illustrates the climate of the Northern Hemisphere in the past 11,000 years.
As geologists, we should always use
the past as the key to unlock the present and look to the future (apologies to Sir Charles Lyell). A number of observa- tions are possible in the graph. First off, the natural variability of climate is clear- ly illustrated. Secondly, history teaches that the three “climate optimum” peri- ods coincided with significant human technological advancement. Third, our present “warming” period appears to be nothing special whatsoever.
In Mr. Diefendorf’s letter, he raises
the spectre of inundation of the Gulf Coast, albeit indirectly. The last 23
years of my career were spent on the Gulf Coast, and there I observed beach strand lines as much as 75 feet above the current sea level. My diver friends told me that beach strand lines can be found beneath the Gulf to depths of as much as 225 feet. So, in the 15,000 years since the last Glacial Maximum, there has been sea level variability of as much as 300 feet. Doing the math, 300 feet of sea level change divided by 150 centuries yields an average of 2 feet of sea level change every 100 years. Given the sea level stability observed in the past 500 years (the period of Caucasian observation), sea level changes during the more dramatic colder to warmer transition periods shown in the figure may have occurred more quickly than a mere 2 feet per century.
These, and similar observations,
don’t gain much traction against the headwind of the “consensus of settled science,” but those of us who are skep- tical of the theory of anthropogenic
them on the web. Figure 1, for Tropical Storm Bonnie, is an example.
Most of the estimated tracks had Bonnie either tracking
just offshore to somewhat inland before turning to the Atlantic off the Delmarva Peninsula. However, one track proceeds to northern Quebec and another heads northwest to Lake Huron. Those familiar with the models could comment on which best estimated Bonnie’s track. But the point for the present dis- cussion is the uncertainty and diversity of tracks as of 0600 UTC on 5/29/19.
Climate change modelling has even greater uncertain-
ties because they model the whole earth’s weather systems, not just relatively localized hurricanes. I’ve been looking for climate change models that depict these uncertainties and found a good collection thereof in Wuebbles, D.J., et al., 2017, Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I: U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 12-34, doi: 10.7930/J0DJ5CTG.
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-sum- mary/ (accessed 10/17/18) (NCA4 report). Figure 2 shows
www.aipg.org
climate change take comfort in their presence. We take further comfort in the failure of predictions, such as those by former Vice President Gore (e.g., his December 16, 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference prediction of an “ice-free Arctic Sea within the next five sum- mers” [see:
https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=MsioIw4bvzI]).
Our 2018 Young Professional Member
of the AIPG ExCom did indeed make a wonderfully valid point in Dave Abbott’s column; as professionals we should always be open to, not only differing points of view, but also scientific evi- dence that disagrees with our point of view. We should never engage in the “shoot the skeptic” behavior that all too often mars debates in the public square.
Sincerely, Peter Dohms, CPG-07141
Peter Dohms is a 34-year member of AIPG and a frequent contributor to TPG.
Figure 2. From Figure 4-2 in the 2017, Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I.
Continued on p. 52
Apr.May.Jun 2019 • TPG 13
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