WEATHER OUTLOOK
BY
BRAD RIPPEY USDA Meteorologist
D
SPONSORED BY
droughtmonitor.unl.edu
uring meteorological autumn (September-November 2023), drought coverage across the Lower 48 states was nearly steady, ranging from 36%-40%, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, there was significant regional variability, with
Southeastern flash drought contrasting with an improving drought situation across large sections of the Great Plains, as well as an area stretching from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest. In recent weeks, El Niño, a phenomenon appearing for the first time since 2018- 2019 and marked by unusually warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, appears to be finally taking the reins of North American weather patterns. Notably, late-autumn and early-winter storm systems have produced heavy, drought-easing rain in the South, especially in the Gulf Coast States. Heavy winter precipitation in the Deep South is typical during El Niño, due to an amplified subtropical jet stream, and winter forecasts from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicate Southeastern wetness is likely to continue into early 2024. At the same time, parts of the northern U.S. have experienced unusually dry weather in recent weeks, also emblematic of El Niño. Elsewhere, the western U.S. is heading into winter with significantly less drought coverage than a year ago. By the end of November, drought covered less than one-third (28%) of the
11-state Western region, down from 69% a year ago. That change is evident in water storage, with California — currently free of drought — reporting statewide storage in 154 key reservoirs nearly doubling (from 68 to 125% of the historical average) during the 12-month period ending Oct. 31, 2023.
U.S. seasonal drought outlook Valid for Dec. 1, 2023-Feb. 29, 2024 | Released May 31, 2023
AD INDEX
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Irrigation Association |
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Irrigation Leader |
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Irrigation Show |
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Irrigation Today |
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Irrometer |
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Irrigation Today |
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Senninger |
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Tempo Communications |
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T-L Irrigation |
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USDA |
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Westlake Pipe & Fittings |
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ADVERTISING OPPORTUNITIES
Consistency adjustment based on Monthly Drought Outlook for December 2023
Author Rich Tinker NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Use caution for applications that can be affected by short lived events. “Ongoing” drought areas are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (intensities of D1 to D4).
NOTE: The tan areas imply at least a 1-category improvement in the Drought Monitor intensity levels by the end of the period, although drought will remain. The green areas imply drought removal by the end of the period (D0 or none).
Drought persists
Drought remains but improves Drought removal likely
Drought development likely Source: U.S. Drought Monitor 38 Irrigation TODAY | Winter 2024
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