WEATWEATHER OUTLOOK EATHER OU OUTLOOK
Spring brings heavy rain & extreme drought
By Brad Rippey A
resurgent La Niña has resulted in an active spring storm track across the United States, highlighted
by a series of heavy-precipitation events in the North and many areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Depending upon location, weather extremes have included heavy rain, late-season snow and severe thunderstorms. In contrast, worsening drought across the nation’s southwestern quadrant has led to a variety of hazards, such as high winds, blowing dust and fast-moving wildfires. Drought has taken a severe toll on U.S. winter wheat, with 39% of the crop rated in very poor to poor condition by April 24, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That’s the highest percentage of wheat in those two categories at this time of year since 1996. Looking ahead, there is some risk, especially if La Niña persists, that
drought could begin to expand eastward during the summer of 2022, possibly encompassing the upper Midwest. The National Weather Service indicates there is a 50% to 55% chance La Niña could continue for the remainder of 2022, raising the specter that the winter of 2022-23 may feature a third consecutive cold season with La Niña for the first time since 1998-99 to 2000-01.
Heading into the 2022 warm season, national drought coverage remains at historically high levels, despite recent heavy precipitation in the North and East. Drought coverage in the lower 48 states has continuously exceeded 40% since late September 2020, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Additionally, by the end of April, drought had covered more than one-half of the contiguous United States for 23 consecutive weeks, the second-
U.S. seasonal drought outlook Drought tendency May 19-Aug. 31
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droughtmonitor.unl.edu
longest such streak of the 21st century, behind a 42-week stretch from June 2012 to April 2013. Impacts of protracted drought across much of the western half of the country include poor rangeland and pasture conditions; significant stress on rain-fed agriculture, including winter wheat and spring-sown crops; groundwater and soil moisture shortages; and low reservoir levels. Heading into the warm season, storage in California’s 154 primary intrastate reservoirs stood at just over 18 million acre- feet, lower than a year ago and about 70% of the historical average for this time of year. Spring storage in the entire Colorado River system, including Lake Powell and Lake Mead, stood at less than 17 million acre-feet, about one-half of average.
Brad Rippey is an agricultural meteorologist
Drought remains but improves Drought persists
Drought removal likely Drought development likely
Author Adam Hartman NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
Source: U.S. Drought Monitor 36 Irrigation TODAY | Summer 2022
irrigationtoday.org
Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Use caution for applications that can be affected by short lived events. “Ongoing” drought areas are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (intensities of D1 to D4).
NOTE: The tan areas imply at least a 1-category improvement in the Drought Monitor intensity levels by the end of the period, although drought will remain. The green areas imply drought removal by the end of the period (D0 or none).
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