. . . and a Reasonably Honest Attempt by a Drudge of an Attorney to Describe
How the Past Can Help Us Predict the Future
In 1964, El Condo in Kirkland was the only condominium. That’s a fact. In 1964, its four units were shared by a population of slightly less than three million Washington State residents. That is, about one unit for every 750,000 people. To summarize, we’ve gone from one unit for every 750,000 people in 1964 to one unit for every 39 people in 2013. Most of this phenomenal growth occurred after attorney Jim Strichartz published the article, “Friends Don’t Let Friends Buy Condos,” which should give those few of you who have read this far an idea of how well-written and nuanced articles, like this one, influence and shape behavior.
Future Fact: Making some general assumptions about
growth of the population, the cost of real estate, the Growth Management Act, future housing starts (an economic indicator reflecting the number of housing units on which construction has been started in a given period), the need for higher density affordable housing, the strength of Washington State’s economy, and my unassailable mathematical skills, in the year 2100 there will be approximately 54 million condominium units, or slightly more than one condominium unit for each Washington State resident. The trend to completely isolate us from one another, set in motion by René Descartes’ 1637 Discourse on the Method, will be complete.
CHART 3 Number of Condominium Units Trendline
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Opinions Not Facts If there is anything disappointing about the Fact Book, it may be that it is entitled “Fact” Book and yet contains the subjective opinions of community association residents. Both the Fact Book and the Washington State companion piece include the results of a 2012 survey conducted by IBOPE Zogby International regarding what community association residents around the country say about living in community associations. According to the “Fact” Book, 70 percent of residents are satisfied, 88 percent believe their board members strive to serve the best interests of the community, 73 percent say professional managers provide value, 76 percent believe that association rules protect and enhance property values, 81 percent say they get a good or great return. And according to a confidential informant whose identify I cannot disclose, 100 percent of the community association residents love their association’s attorney. In my own experience, all of these numbers seem low.
—Bob Dylan
The order is rapidly fadin’. And the first one now will later be last for the times they are a-changin’.
Conclusion I hope you find these facts as interesting as I found them. In an age where STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics)
is forefront in our
public schools’ efforts to improve testing scores, I am ecstatic that I can do my part.
Resources If you would like to do your own research, please check out some of the following resources:
Research, 2013 Community Association Fact Book
Research, 2013 Community Association Fact Book for Washington
www.wscai.org 17
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