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Changes: The 2013 Community Association Fact Book . . . Brian McLean


If there is one constant, it is change. And if you subscribe to an Hegelian perspective on time and change, as I do, then you will agree that when it comes to community associations, we are being squeezed between two opposing forces—individual rights and the community. If things eventually improve, as hoped, we can expect the world at some point will be covered with condominiums and rooftop gardens, humans will share resources in a utopian stupor, and boards will run themselves, much like Google cars.


If things eventually worsen, we can expect the world at some point will be covered with condominiums. Either way it will be covered with condominiums, and I come to this conclusion because I’ve just completed a critical reading of the Foundation for Community Association Research’s 2013 Community Association Fact Book (Fact Book) and its Washington State companion piece. If you don’t like math, then you can depend on and trust absolutely the efforts of this uncompensated drudge to compile and distill facts and statistics and create simple charts for your easy consumption. If, on the other hand, you like un-compiled and un-distilled statistics, facts, and summaries, you will love the statistical review, fact book and state summaries you’ll find on the Foundation for Community Association Research website at http://cairf.org/research/ factbook/default.aspx.


Washington State’s Population Growth,


and Why Yellow Knife is Starting to Look Promising Drawing from my own experience as a Washington State and Seattle native, and relying on a critical reading of the Fact Book, unassailable mathematical skills, and U.S. Census data, I make the following assertions. Today, approximately seven million people call Washington State their home.


Future Fact: In the year 2100, that number will be 50 million, an over seven-fold increase.


If you don’t believe me, then at least believe the chart I created in Excel by plugging in facts and, from those facts, extrapolating future facts.


CHART 1 Washington State Population Trendline


60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150


How Many Associations You Ask, and the Kind of Budgets We’re Talking About: The Privatization of


Government Services and Why it Matters Today about two million Washington State residents live in 10,000 Washington State community associations. The sum of these associations’ estimated annual budgets is $1.9 billion with annual reserve fund contributions topping $600 million. Based on my own research, the privatization of government services—that is, the trend for local governments to require community associations to shoulder the cost and responsibility for maintaining critical infrastructure—should be complete by 2060. If our current state budget of about $40 billion per year is any indication, state revenue redirected to community associations will go a long way to alleviate any future crisis over underfunded reserves.


Future Facts: I predict that in the year 2100, there will be 1.6 million community associations in Washington State, with 1,920 attorneys, 228,000 managers, 12 million volunteer board and committee members, and no centralized government.


CHART 2 Community Associatins Trendline


1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0


1970 2013 2025 2050 2075 2100


You Ask About the Number of Condominium Units and Why it Seems Condominiums are Taking Over. I Answer that They are Taking Over and Support My


Position with Future Facts and Another Chart There is no good current data on the number of condominium units in Washington State, so let’s estimate the number of units as of September 18, 2014, to be 175,416. That’s about one unit for every 39 people.


Now, let’s go back to 1990, the last year that apparently anyone with credibility counted the number of Washington State condominium units. In 1990, per the Fact Book, there were 62,639 condominium units. That is, in 1990 there was about one condominium unit for every 78 people.


In 1980 there were 36,940 condominium units, or about one condominium unit for every 109 people.


16 Community Associations Journal | November 2014


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